306 S Carter St

Crainville, IL 62918

$119,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,052/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-373/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (11.6% below list).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#377 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Carterville CUSD 5 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #185 of 620 in IL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tri-C Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #517 of 2,056 statewide, top 28%, 701 students, 0% FRL); Carterville Intermediate Sch (math 27% / reading 43%, grade F, #191 of 665 statewide, top 30%, 518 students, 0% FRL); Carterville High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #88 of 693 statewide, top 14%, 636 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $119k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.