3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,574 sqft ·
Built 1957
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 129 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,446/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$420
Tax + insurance
−$178
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$304
Net cashflow
$544/mo
Annual
$6,533/yr
Cap rate
14.46%
Cash-on-cash
29.17%
DSCR
2.30
1% rule
1.81%
Cash to close
$22,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Willow Drive Elementary (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #587 of 597 statewide, top 99%, 551 students, 100% FRL); Crestwood High (math 32% / reading 71%, grade D+, #146 of 196 statewide, top 75%, 1,100 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $79k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.4% in Sumter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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