1857 Hodnetts Rd

Gretna, VA 24557

$79,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $970/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $291/mo
• Annual: $3,490/yr
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.78%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($970 rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#157 in VA, #4,927 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pittsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #22 of 131 in VA (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Pittsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pittsylvania County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.5% in Gretna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.