2306 SW Rolling Hls

Lawton, OK 73505

$154,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Pending · 334 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-435/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-435/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Bishop (urban): math 43% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #16 of 270 in OK (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bishop Public School (math 43% / reading 37%, grade F, #102 of 845 statewide, top 12%, 570 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 398 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.