4211 Allen St

Houston, TX 77007

$455,000D+

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,364 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax + insurance: −$1,041
• HOA: −$163
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$916
• Net cashflow: $-142/mo
• Annual: $-1,708/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.34%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $127,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $455k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $430k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $436k (4.1% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($448k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $430k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hogg Middle (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,120 students, 52% FRL); Heights H S (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,476 students, 65% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Houston ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 651 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $455k implies a 1387% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($145k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.