1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
600 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Condo
· Active
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,305/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,884
Tax + insurance
−$917
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$904
Net cashflow
$-400/mo
Annual
$-4,802/yr
Cap rate
5.42%
Cash-on-cash
-3.12%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$154,000
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $550k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $492k (10.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $430k (21.7% below list).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $430k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $24k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Mark Twain Is 239 For The Gifted And Talented (math 90% / reading 96%, grade A+, #6 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 1,207 students, 44% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,305/mo this rent would consume 107% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 7758% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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