244 Colleton Sq

Bogue, NC 28570

$1,299,000B-

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,705 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,603/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,812
• Tax + insurance: −$2,165
• HOA: −$143
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,487
• Net cashflow: $3,996/mo
• Annual: $47,957/yr
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $363,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath land listed at $1.30M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($48k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $1.30M).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.22M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#311 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newport Elementary (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 645 students, 100% FRL); Newport Middle (math 39% / reading 56%, grade C-, #140 of 475 statewide, top 30%, 378 students, 98% FRL); West Carteret High (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A-, #89 of 535 statewide, top 16%, 1,146 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $1.30M implies a 1756% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $364k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $16,603/mo this rent would consume 284% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.