5229 Kilpatrick Ave

Fort Worth, TX 76107

$139,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Pending · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,735/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $458/mo
• Annual: $5,495/yr
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.12%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Como El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 411 students, 92% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 73% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.