3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,355 sqft ·
Built 1993
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 24 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,819/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,337
Tax + insurance
−$207
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$382
Net cashflow
$-107/mo
Annual
$-1,283/yr
Cap rate
5.79%
Cash-on-cash
-1.80%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$71,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (7.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (28.7% below list).
It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $182k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#3 in AR, #871 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-.
Fayetteville School District (urban): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Owl Creek School (math 36% / reading 28%, grade F, #278 of 454 statewide, top 64%, 1,024 students, 62% FRL); Ramay Junior High School (math 39% / reading 39%, grade F, #102 of 201 statewide, top 52%, 645 students, 54% FRL); Fayetteville High School East (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #24 of 292 statewide, top 9%, 2,685 students, 27% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $138k; list at $255k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7A98A8ER7XP6JQ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29