4936 Poppy Ln

Edina, MN 55435

$450,000C-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,102 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$717
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$855
• Net cashflow: $140/mo
• Annual: $1,677/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.33%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $407k (9.5% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $407k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#82 in MN, #1,926 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Edina Public School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #5 of 301 in MN (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 67 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 34y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.8% in Edina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,071/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 976% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.