3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,370 sqft ·
Built 1900
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 86 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,220/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$707
Tax + insurance
−$444
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$676
Net cashflow
$1,392/mo
Annual
$16,703/yr
Cap rate
18.67%
Cash-on-cash
44.22%
DSCR
2.97
1% rule
2.39%
Cash to close
$37,772
Investor read
This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $696/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $63k; list at $135k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,220/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 210% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
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