2633 SW Obsidian Ave Unit 42

Redmond, OR 97756

$169,500C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$385
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $275/mo
• Annual: $3,302/yr
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.96%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $47,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in OR, #2,715 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: commute F.
• Redmond SD 2J (town): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 58 in OR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vern Patrick Elementary School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #218 of 412 statewide, top 58%, 331 students, 68% FRL); Obsidian Middle School (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #86 of 128 statewide, top 72%, 591 students, 48% FRL); Redmond High School (936 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 731 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,624 units permitted in Deschutes County in 2024 (391 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Deschutes County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.8% in Redmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.