408 E North 1st St

Herrick, IL 62431

$59,500B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,099/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $457/mo
• Annual: $5,482/yr
• Cap rate: 15.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.90%
• DSCR: 2.46
• 1% rule: 1.85%
• Cash to close: $16,660

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $54k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($411 loan paydown + $900 appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,092 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Cowden-Herrick CUSD 3A (rural): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #748 of 919 in IL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.