9207 Douglas St #201

Manassas, VA 20110

$215,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,207/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$329
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $45/mo
• Annual: $545/yr
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $215k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($545/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#18 in VA, #474 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Manassas City Public School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #121 of 131 in VA (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 167 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 90 units permitted in Manassas city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manassas County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $84k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $215k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Manassas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.