2410 Grand Ave

Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$139,900D

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$473
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-288/mo
• Annual: $-3,461/yr
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.84%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (16.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $99k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.