1421 Newhaven Rd

Wichita Falls, TX 76306

$75,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,247/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $377/mo
• Annual: $4,529/yr
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.57%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• Wichita Falls ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #585 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.5% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.