1421 Orchid Ln

Richburg, SC 29729

$338,090D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,175 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,704/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax + insurance: −$563
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-300/mo
• Annual: $-3,601/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $94,665

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $338k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (20.0% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $270k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#182 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Chester 01 (rural): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #59 of 80 in SC (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewisville Elementary (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #226 of 597 statewide, top 40%, 510 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chester 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 269 units permitted in Chester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chester County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.