69626 Pluto

Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$227,000C

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,024 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,301/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $466/mo
• Annual: $5,588/yr
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.79%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $63,560

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $227k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Twentynine Palms Elementary (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,335 of 1,571 statewide, top 85%, 548 students, 47% FRL); Twentynine Palms Junior High (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #236 of 498 statewide, top 48%, 413 students, 63% FRL); Twentynine Palms High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 729 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 751 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.1% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,301/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1057% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.