1601 Jefferson St

East Bakersfield, CA 93305

$1,425,000C-

312 bd · 169.0 ba · 3,960 sqft · Built 1980 · MultiFamily · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,582/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,473
• Tax + insurance: −$1,521
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,852
• Net cashflow: $1,736/mo
• Annual: $20,832/yr
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.22%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $399,000

Investor read

• This is a 11×2.0bd/1.0ba + 2×1.0bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $1.43M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive. Per door: $134/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.36M (4.7% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.36M (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $43k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $399k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $13,582/mo this rent would consume 377% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 2376% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.