2616 Goldfinch Dr

Denton, TX 76205

$457,835F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,045 sqft · Built 2027 · Land · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,570/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,401
• Tax + insurance: −$763
• HOA: −$67
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-1,201/mo
• Annual: $-14,408/yr
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.24%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $128,194

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $458k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (43.9% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($430k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.