41 Gifford Ave

Poughkeepsie, NY 12601

$295,000B+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,814/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$922
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,221
• Net cashflow: $2,124/mo
• Annual: $25,489/yr
• Cap rate: 14.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.86%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 1.97%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive. Per door: $708/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $295k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#165 in NY, #2,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Poughkeepsie City School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #559 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Morse Young Magnet School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,041 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 495 students, 0% FRL); Poughkeepsie Middle School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #650 of 729 statewide, top 90%, 877 students, 82% FRL); Poughkeepsie High School (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B-, #819 of 1,100 statewide, top 74%, 1,165 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 73% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.4% in Poughkeepsie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,814/mo this rent would consume 110% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 2891% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.