1649 W Lacewood Pl

Phoenix, AZ 85045

$420,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,954/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$362
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-311/mo
• Annual: $-3,730/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (29.7% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Kyrene Elementary District (4267) (urban): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 249 in AZ (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kyrene De La Sierra School (math 69% / reading 81%, grade A, #32 of 1,109 statewide, top 3%, 514 students, 12% FRL); Kyrene Altadena Middle School (math 49% / reading 61%, grade B-, #11 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 962 students, 10% FRL); Desert Vista High School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade D+, #31 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,964 students, 10% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kyrene Elementary District (4267) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.