968 Church St

Browndell, TX 75931

$95,999C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 592 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $122/mo
• Annual: $1,462/yr
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.44%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $26,880

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• It's been on market 592 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($663 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,526 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Brookeland ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #445 of 1,141 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brookeland El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 162 students, 65% FRL); Brookeland H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 179 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 592 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.