18719 Poinciana

Livonia, MI 48240

$179,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,580/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-20/mo
• Annual: $-237/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-237/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in MI, #2,784 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, commute F.
• Redford Union Schools District No. 1 (suburban): math 8% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #489 of 540 in MI (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Beech Elementary (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,277 of 1,397 statewide, top 93%, 453 students, 83% FRL); Hilbert Middle School (math 8% / reading 25%, grade F, #446 of 493 statewide, top 90%, 398 students, 75% FRL); Redford Union High School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #476 of 713 statewide, top 67%, 736 students, 70% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 21 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Livonia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.