1791 W Valley Rd

Dunlap, TN 37397

$240,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-468/mo
• Annual: $-5,610/yr
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.16%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (46.0% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#264 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sequatchie County (rural): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #95 of 139 in TN (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Sequatchie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sequatchie County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.4% in Dunlap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.