3021 S 11th St #11

Port Aransas, TX 78373

$429,000D-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,708 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$1,142
• HOA: −$916
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-1,542/mo
• Annual: $-18,507/yr
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.15%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $429k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (52.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (52.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#525 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Port Aransas ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #68 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Olsen El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 227 students, 35% FRL); Brundrett Middle (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 115 students, 31% FRL); Port Aransas H S (math 74% / reading 74%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 204 students, 19% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: 1107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 1.1% in Port Aransas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,500/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?