2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
984 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Condo
· Pending
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,666/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$122
HOA
−$690
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$350
Net cashflow
$-203/mo
Annual
$-2,441/yr
Cap rate
4.48%
Cash-on-cash
-6.46%
DSCR
0.71
1% rule
1.23%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (26.6% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $99k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 602 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $95k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7HDFTB1YN9DN5F
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29