5200 Wishing Well Dr

Grand Blanc, MI 48439

$220,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,310 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,645/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-381/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-381/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#56 in MI, #1,077 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Grand Blanc Community Schools (suburban): math 33% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #149 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcgrath Elementary School (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #967 of 1,397 statewide, top 70%, 415 students, 63% FRL); Grand Blanc Middle School West (math 20% / reading 43%, grade F, #323 of 493 statewide, top 66%, 816 students, 57% FRL); Grand Blanc Community High School (math 35% / reading 67%, grade D+, #142 of 713 statewide, top 20%, 2,556 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 24% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $220k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Grand Blanc — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.