2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,351 sqft ·
Built 1984
· Townhouse
· Active
· 111 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,499/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$233
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$315
Net cashflow
$217/mo
Annual
$2,604/yr
Cap rate
8.15%
Cash-on-cash
6.65%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$39,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Ann Smith Elementary (746 students, 100% FRL); Old Town Middle (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #84 of 179 statewide, top 47%, 707 students, 100% FRL); Ridgeland High School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #85 of 197 statewide, top 43%, 968 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 54% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Madison County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.8% in Ridgeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Driveway
— Cracks in concrete
Minor: Landscaping
— Sparse grass and debris
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29