155 Francis Ave

Raton, NM 87740

$44,500B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,357 sqft · Built 1937 · Other · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,156/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $577/mo
• Annual: $6,921/yr
• Cap rate: 21.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.54%
• DSCR: 3.47
• 1% rule: 2.60%
• Cash to close: $12,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#23 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Raton Public Schools (town): math 14% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #71 of 95 in NM (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Longfellow Elementary (251 students, 39% FRL); Raton High (math 50% / reading 70%, grade C+, #27 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 359 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 20% FRL vs 59% district-wide (39 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 19% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Raton Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP.
• Colfax County population projected at -39% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $81k (65%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.