3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Land
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,375/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,526
Tax + insurance
−$251
HOA
−$113
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$499
Net cashflow
$-14/mo
Annual
$-163/yr
Cap rate
6.24%
Cash-on-cash
-0.20%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$81,461
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $289k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-163/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (0.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (17.8% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $238k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
29 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7HVTCJEH9Z9WMM
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29