2349 Kelly Pl

Lorain, OH 44052

$115,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,303/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $292/mo
• Annual: $3,506/yr
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.89%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#595 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Lorain City (suburban): math 13% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #633 of 656 in OH (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Garfield Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,217 of 1,584 statewide, top 78%, 217 students, 0% FRL); General Johnnie Wilson Middle School (math 14% / reading 24%, grade F, #614 of 654 statewide, top 94%, 472 students, 0% FRL); Lorain High School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #638 of 781 statewide, top 82%, 1,722 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 80% district-wide (80 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.7% in Lorain — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.