3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,497 sqft ·
Built 1998
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,059/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$813
Tax + insurance
−$211
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$432
Net cashflow
$602/mo
Annual
$7,228/yr
Cap rate
10.96%
Cash-on-cash
16.65%
DSCR
1.74
1% rule
1.33%
Cash to close
$43,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $602 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#447 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $75k; list at $155k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.0% in Fruitland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7JK4PSF5YSTN3Z
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29