463 Avocado Rd NW

Palm Bay, FL 32907

$299,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,893 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $35/mo
• Annual: $414/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($414/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (23.1% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $230k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Christa Mcauliffe Elementary School (math 56% / reading 55%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 621 students, 68% FRL); Central Middle School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 1,127 students, 53% FRL); Heritage High School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,007 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 43% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 750 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $299k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.