50350 Cowens Rd #8

Scappoose, OR 97056

$46,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 313 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax + insurance: −$503
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $875/mo
• Annual: $10,496/yr
• Cap rate: 40.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 121.23%
• DSCR: 6.39
• 1% rule: 4.46%
• Cash to close: $12,880

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $46k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $875 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $46k).
• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $318 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#35 in OR, #812 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Scappoose SD 1J (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #69 of 183 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grant Watts Elementary School (reading 54%, 346 students, 38% FRL); Otto Petersen Elementary School (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #86 of 128 statewide, top 72%, 412 students, 31% FRL); Scappoose High School (656 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Scappoose SD 1J average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $83k (64%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 40.2% vs local median 2.8% in Scappoose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.