3017 Johnson Rd Lot 57

Stevensville, MI 49127

$49,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 0 sqft · Built 1974 · Other · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$565
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $75/mo
• Annual: $895/yr
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 2.50%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($895/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#236 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lakeshore School District (Berrien) (suburban): math 56% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #37 of 540 in MI (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.2% in Stevensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.