409 Davis Ave

Tifton, GA 31794

$65,000B-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,352 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,513/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $758/mo
• Annual: $9,090/yr
• Cap rate: 20.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.95%
• DSCR: 3.22
• 1% rule: 2.33%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#69 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, commute F.
• Tift County (town): math 30% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #96 of 174 in GA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 176 units permitted in Tift County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tift County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (45%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.2% in Tifton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.