40 Calle Aragon Unit T

Laguna Woods, CA 92637

$325,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$910
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-790/mo
• Annual: $-9,481/yr
• Cap rate: 3.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.42%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-790 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (7.9% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#200 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Joaquin Elementary (247 students, 76% FRL); La Paz Intermediate (706 students, 38% FRL); Laguna Hills High (math 39% / reading 72%, grade C, #246 of 1,170 statewide, top 21%, 1,434 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 22% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.4% in Laguna Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.