1111 Eastover Pkwy

Lake of the Woods, VA 22508

$475,000F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,135 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 264 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,909/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$217
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-833/mo
• Annual: $-9,997/yr
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.52%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-833 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (38.8% below list).
• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#341 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Locust Grove Elementary (math 51% / reading 64%, grade C+, #588 of 1,108 statewide, top 54%, 520 students, 70% FRL); Locust Grove Middle (math 42% / reading 66%, grade B-, #205 of 342 statewide, top 61%, 693 students, 69% FRL); Orange County High (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,476 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 34% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $248k; list at $475k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.