57560 AZ Highway 188--98

Jakes Corner, AZ 85541

$65,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Pending · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,004/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $1,009/mo
• Annual: $12,106/yr
• Cap rate: 27.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.77%
• DSCR: 4.33
• 1% rule: 3.08%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#341 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.