6 Big Top Dr

Lambertville, NJ 08530-3431

$920,000B+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,712 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,897/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,825
• Tax + insurance: −$1,783
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,968
• Net cashflow: $8,321/mo
• Annual: $99,851/yr
• Cap rate: 17.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.76%
• DSCR: 2.72
• 1% rule: 2.05%
• Cash to close: $257,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $920k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($100k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $920k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($906k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $906k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#168 in NJ, #4,460 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• South Hunterdon Regional School District (rural): math 13% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #335 of 472 in NJ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Hunterdon Regional High School (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #304 of 399 statewide, top 77%, 417 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 53% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $565k; list at $920k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $258k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 4.7% in Lambertville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.