1621 Maple St

Niles, MI 49120

$89,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $127/mo
• Annual: $1,530/yr
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.10%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $25,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($907 rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#260 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime D-.
• Niles Community Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #248 of 540 in MI (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.3% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.