9163 W 103rd St

St. John, IN 46373

$414,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,090 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Pending · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-364/mo
• Annual: $-4,367/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.76%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $116,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hanover Community School Corporation (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #38 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #172 of 994 statewide, top 18%, 312 students, 14% FRL); Hanover Central Middle School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D+, #79 of 330 statewide, top 24%, 650 students, 25% FRL); Hanover Central High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #49 of 369 statewide, top 16%, 782 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $415k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in St. John — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.