605 Diamond Loop

Middletown, OH 45044

$270,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,345 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,363/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$475
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-297/yr
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-297/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Amanda Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,584 statewide, top 80%, 374 students, 0% FRL); Middletown Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 654 statewide, top 89%, 941 students, 0% FRL); Middletown High School (math 18% / reading 19%, grade F, #683 of 781 statewide, top 88%, 1,753 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 69% district-wide (69 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.