20 Valentine Ave

Glen Cove, NY 11542

$409,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 908 sqft · Built 1931 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax + insurance: −$414
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$799
• Net cashflow: $448/mo
• Annual: $5,380/yr
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $114,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $409k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (6.9% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $381k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#685 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Glen Cove City School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #312 of 590 in NY (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $409k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Glen Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,807/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 1667% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.