2 Wild Ridge/ Sawgrass

Black Jack, MO 63033

$334,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,491 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 1492 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,161/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,907
• Tax + insurance: −$606
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-819/mo
• Annual: $-9,822/yr
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $101,801

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-819 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (35.5% below list).
• It's been on market 1492 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jury Elem. (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 420 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 1492 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.