403 E Chestnut St

Archie, MO 64725

$172,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · Built 1915 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,181/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $-123/mo
• Annual: $-1,478/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $48,300

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (31.5% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $118k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#263 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Archie R-V (rural): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #135 of 324 in MO (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cass Co. Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 229 students, 30% FRL); Archie High (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 287 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 588 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.