506 Millwood Dr

Franklin, KY 42134

$199,850D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,432/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-846/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $55,958

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-846/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#266 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Simpson County (town): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #72 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Simpson Elementary School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #469 of 676 statewide, top 70%, 726 students, 69% FRL); Franklin-Simpson Middle School (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #103 of 217 statewide, top 48%, 687 students, 69% FRL); Franklin-Simpson High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 817 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 52% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 204 units permitted in Simpson County in 2024 (31 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Simpson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $200k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.