2308 N Ellis St

Peoria, IL 61604

$32,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 204 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,025/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $543/mo
• Annual: $6,512/yr
• Cap rate: 26.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.69%
• DSCR: 4.15
• 1% rule: 3.12%
• Cash to close: $9,212

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $33k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $543 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $227 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $987 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Peoria SD 150 (urban): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #554 of 620 in IL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valeska Hinton Early Ch Ed Ctr (495 students, 0% FRL); Harold B Dawson Middle School (math 0% / reading 5%, grade F, #658 of 665 statewide, top 99%, 360 students, 0% FRL); Peoria High School (math 4% / reading 7%, grade F, #609 of 693 statewide, top 88%, 1,447 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 70% district-wide (70 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 26.1% vs local median 5.5% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.