207 White Deer Trl

Denton, MI 48651

$185,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1999 · Condo · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,861/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $502/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($502/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Houghton Lake Community Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #410 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Collins Elementary School (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #918 of 1,397 statewide, top 66%, 555 students, 76% FRL); Houghton Lake Jrsr High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #462 of 713 statewide, top 66%, 511 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 57% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Roscommon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roscommon County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.